18 October, 2007: London -- With renewed diplomatic efforts from all sides, progress is finally being made in the stalled negotiations to denuclearize North Korea.
On October 3, an agreement was reached in Beijing between the six parties--China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, the United States, and North Korea--to begin the “second phase” of a plan for the “verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
At the center of the pact is the stipulation that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), as the North is officially known, “disable all existing nuclear facilities.”
In particular, the North will complete the disablement its main plutonium operation at Yongbyon by the end of this year. This facility has been shut down and sealed off, and is currently being monitored by inspectors from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) under an agreement reached in February.
By disabling or dismantling the DPRK’s nuclear facilities, negotiators hope to avoid a repeat of 2002, when the North lifted its freeze on its nuclear activities. Since then, U.S. intelligence reports estimate that North Korea has produced enough plutonium for as many as six nuclear weapons. On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted its first partially successful nuclear test.
North Korea has also agreed “to provide a complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs,” including any uranium-based program.
In return, the North will receive both economic and humanitarian assistance equalling one million tons of heavy fuel oil. This total includes the 100,000 tons of fuel that has already been delivered to Pyongyang. However, North Korean officials have pressed the United States and the other parties to upgrade and improve its energy infrastructure, rather than simply offering one-off energy supplies.
The Bush administration has also agreed to “begin the process” of removing North Korea--“in parallel” with the North’s own actions--from the state-sponsor of terror list and terminating the Trade with the Enemy Act as it pertains to the DPRK. How far U.S. officials are willing to go in regards to easing sanctions is currently unclear, but it is unlikely that all sanctions will be removed soon.
Rehabilitating the North’s economy is a central goal of the negotiations.
The United States’ chief negotiator and Assistant Secretary of State for
East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Christopher Hill, continually points out that Pyongyang will need a strong relationship with a regional trade partner, particularly referring to Japan, if it is to rescue itself from its economic doldrums.
Furthermore, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il’s desire to access the international financial system has given new impetus in the six party talks, according to an official directly involved in the negotiations.
The importance of global money markets was illustrated this summer
after funds totalling $25 million were frozen in a Macau bank. However, a maelstrom erupted from the freezing bringing negotiations on the nuclear issue to a standstill as Mr. Kim refused to continue negotiations until the funds were returned.
The issue of succession is also pushing the North to the negotiating table. There are reports that Mr. Kim, 65, is in ill health, a claim he vigorously refutes.
Normalizing Relations
Following the October 9, 2006 test, Pyongyang hoped that it would reap
the fruits of its nuclear labor by being diplomatically recognized and granted access to the global financial system. Instead, the reverse happened as
the North found itself increasingly isolated, with even its closest ally, China, condemning its actions.
As such, North Korea’s more malleable position is likely an effort to normalize relations, in particular with Washington. Under the new agreement, the two nations will move towards “a full diplomatic relationship.”
The official, who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations, was quick to point out that the six party talks are primarily intended to denuclearize the Korean peninsula and not to improve bilateral relations between states, though the two issues are inextricably linked.
It is unclear whether the Dear Leader had made a “strategic change” to
give up his country’s nuclear weapons program. Even if this was the case, DPRK officials would not acknowledge this change as it would weaken their negotiating position and run contrary to the country’s history of secrecy.
However, “in the immediate” phase, the official noted that cooperation on the nuclear issue would likely continue.
Renewed appetite for diplomacy
Success in the six party talks would be a major coup for George W. Bush, who is purportedly anxious to achieve a major policy victory. These developments also illustrate a new appetite for diplomacy within the White House, especially given the Bush Administration’s past record on this issue. In 2003, the U.S. famously led a coalition to invade Iraq because of the country’s supposed possession of nuclear weapons.
This commitment to negotiations was tested last month with the revelation that North Korea might have been assisting Syria to develop its own nuclear capabilities. The accusation was made after Israel bombed what its intelligence officials believe was a nuclear-related facility in the Middle Eastern nation on September 6.
Following the attack, China postponed negotiations between the six parties. Analysts suspect that this move was made to avoid disagreements that could have jeopardized the talks’ progress. It is also an indication that Beijing is increasingly willing to assert itself as a reliable broker in the region.
Under the new accord, the DPRK reaffirmed its commitment to non-proliferation, and the official indicated that the North would have to explain its ties with Syria.
North-South agreement
In separate negotiations, the leaders of North and South Korea signed an agreement on October 4 to increase economic cooperation, including expanding the special economic zone at Kaesong in the North, where South Korean firms employ cheap North Korean labor. A second economic zone will be established north of the demilitarized zone at the port town of Haeju.
A number of transport links between the states will also be instated, ranging from direct flights from Seoul to the North to freight train services between the states.
It is estimated that the agreement will cost South Korea upwards of $11 billion, almost half the DPRK’s annual gross domestic product, if the plan is fully implemented. The resulting economic benefits could equal $138 billion
for the North and $4.8 billion for the South. |
