1 October 2007: London -- Those hoping to divine who will succeed Vladimir Putin as President of Russia next spring have again had their efforts thwarted by the surprise appointment of Viktor Zubkov as Prime Minister.

Mr. Zubkov, 64, was the little-known head of the Financial Monitoring Services until last week when he replaced Mikhail Fradkov. Fradkov had held the post for more than three years.

Given Mr. Putin’s overwhelming popularity—his approval ratings rest above 80%—and the emasculated opposition movement in Russia, voters are widely expected to vote into office whomever the president chooses.

A government reshuffle had been expected for some time with many anticipating that Putin would anoint one of the leading candidates, Deputy Prime Ministers Sergey Ivanov or Dmitry Medvedev, as Prime Minister and chosen dauphin. Mr. Ivanov was seen as a particular favorite with one Russian paper, Vedomosti, going so far as to predict he would take over the position.

Mr. Ivanovhimself has been sanguine about his likely appointment, suggesting that he had already secured the presidency. He was seen as the frontrunner because his more hawkish stance towards the West was increasingly in line with the Kremlin’s own views.

Instead of certainty, though, Russia’s electoral waters have been further muddied. Mr. Putin indicated that there was “a real choice” in the election with five viable candidates including Mr. Zubkov. While unnamed, the final two candidates are thought to be Vladimir Yakunin, head of the state-owned Russian Railways company, and Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Naryshkin.

Responding to questioning on the matter, Mr. Zubkov said he would consider running “if I achieve something as Prime Minister.” He was confirmed to that position on September 14, by the Russian Duma, which is controlled by parties loyal to the Kremlin.

Professor Yury Fedorov, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London, said that the new Prime Minister owes his new position to his “close personal relationship with Putin.”

The two have a long history, with Mr. Zubkov serving under Mr. Putin in the office of the mayor of St. Petersburg. In the 1990s, Mr. Zubkov was a senior official at the Federal Tax Service before Mr. Putin named him to the head of the ministry in 2001 where he was central to the president’s campaign against the so-called “oligarchs.”

When asked why the president chose Zubkov as Prime Minister, Professor Fedorov was quick to point out that there are “no final answers” when it comes to Russia. One likely reason might be that Mr. Zubkov could serve as president for “one or two years and then step aside,” thus allowing Mr. Putin to return to power.

Additionally, the choice might have been made “to demonstrate that [Mr. Putin] is in a controlling situation … controlling the political and economic situation.” By putting off the decision to name a true successor, Mr. Putin is avoiding becoming a “lame duck.”

According to Professor Fedorov, it is hard to tell whether Mr. Zubkov’s selection affects the other candidates’ presidential ambitions. Much will depend upon their places within the future government which has yet to be announced.

Federov believes that Putin will ultimately choose his successor based on two criteria. First, their “loyalty to Putin” will be paramount as he will want someone “to secure his future and… who will not attempt to encroach on his position.” Mr. Putin has made no secret of his ambition to retain some power, indicating that the next president and he will have to find a way to co-exist. He has also hinted at a return to the presidency in 2012, when the next elections are slated to be held.

Second, Putin wants someone who can “maintain the balance between cliques and interest groups.” It is important that he be able to “control influential groups within Russia’s elites and manipulate them.” Yet the new president must be “accepted by most elites as a neutral, not part of any group.”

The role of the elites could be one of the determining factors in Putin’s decision. Many see Mr. Ivanov as being closely associated with the military and the defense establishment through his former position as Minister of Defense. For his part, Mr. Medvedev’s position as Chairman of the Board of Directors for Gazprom, the country’s gas monopoly, closely ties him to Russia’s energy elites.

This government reshuffle has again called into question Russia’s commitment to democracy under Mr. Putin and is one of a litany of reasons for the country’s worsening relations with the West. This trend will likely continue given these developments as the current president looks set to exert considerable authority even after his term ends.