9 July 2008: Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is boasting a string of victories over the FARC the past year. The deaths of Raul Reyes, FARC’s second in command, and Ivan Rios, another powerful guerilla leader, coupled with the surrender of FARC commander Nelly Avila Moreno, have already left the organization in shambles, exposing its growing weakness and increasing inability to operate effectively within Colombia. Many have predicted the organization’s impending death, but most have reserved final judgment as long as the FARC held its most important cards: the high profile hostages. Until now.

On July 2nd, as a result of a daring maneuver by the Colombian police and military, 15 hostages, including three American contractors, and the FARC’s most potent bargaining chip, French citizen and Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt, were finally freed. In an operation reminiscent of a cold war spy novel, Colombian forces liberated the hostages without firing a shot, relying instead on old fashioned intelligence, and making “Operation Check” an incredible victory; as Colombian President Alvaro Uribe put it, "It was an intelligence operation comparable with the greatest epics of human history, but without a drop of blood being spilled, without one weapon being fired."  

Disguised as FARC rebels, Colombian forces convinced the guerillas that they were there only to move the hostages to another rebel stronghold. Colombian forces were able to put the captives on two disguised helicopters and fly them to safety. “We are the army, and you are free” the pilots assured the hostages. The relieved captives celebrated so heartily that "the helicopter nearly fell from the sky,” said an ecstatic Ms. Betancourt, who was reunited with her family in Paris on July 4th.

No victory thus far in the war against the FARC has done more to hurt the morale of the organization. "The guerrillas feel more and more defeated and demoralized. I can say that 70 percent of them are bored with their life," said Juan Carlos Bermeo, one of the soldiers captured in the operation. 

Although the FARC still holds several hundred hostages, some of whom were captured many years ago and are presumed dead, the group is undeniably weaker than ever. The rescue of Ms. Betancourt and the American contractors was the last bargaining chip the guerrillas had in their possession. With some 300 members deserting every month, citing everything from hunger to fear, the FARC’s eventual defeat at the hands of the Colombian government seems increasingly imminent. 

Indeed, the group has dwindled from a well organized army boasting some 20,000 fighters, to a fragmented 10,000. The Colombian army, often considered laughably weak compared to the strength of the FARC, has definitively proved itself. Colombian Defense Secretary Juan Manuel Santos testified to that fact saying, “[f]oreign military analysts said this [operation] could have only been done by the best of the best in the world… and we are the best in the world."  (Recent reports that the hostages were actually ransomed for a very large sum, with American assistance, has been denied by the Columbian government.) 

Most importantly, and regardless of the backstory behind the rescue, what leverage the FARC has had over the Colombian government, and President Uribe, has been lost according to Michael Schifter, Vice President of InterAmerican Dialogue in Washington.  "This removes the only real bargaining chip the FARC had left in its dealings with the government. It's going to be very hard now to talk of the FARC as a national guerrilla movement—it's going to fracture and fragment even more.” Schifter says the FARC represents the last armed guerilla movement in Latin America, and that the goal now should be to get its people to enter civil society, a goal that looks more and more realistic as the rebels continue to lose hope. Even Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has called the FARC “out of place” in the 21st century, calling for its surrender—a dramatic reversal for a man who offered rhetorical as well as private and tangible, support for the group just months ago. He has also said that he believes the Colombian government should heed the FARC’s message, and include it in government circles, the Colombians are hardly of a mind to do so. 

If the hostages are the biggest winners President Uribe is not far behind, and the feelings of suddenly being in “nirvana” expressed by Ms. Betancourt must certainly be felt in Bogotá. Long criticized for his unwillingness to negotiate with the FARC and thereby potentially risking the lives of the hostages, as well as the maintenance of his alliance with the United States, Uribe’s detractors have little ammo left, and his hard line stance throughout his battle against the guerillas has won him the highest approval rating of any president in Colombia’s turbulent history despite allegations of the government’s complicity with the country’s right wing paramilitaries, which are themselves guilty of atrocities.

Without a doubt, President Uribe has emerged as a hero to Colombians, gaining increased leverage not only against the FARC, but also against his neighbors, with whom his relationship has been souring since the May 1st raid into Ecuadorian territory in pursuit of Reyes. Uribe has long criticized Chavez and his allies for interfering in Colombian affairs, especially for their insistence on being a part of the negotiation process with the FARC. However, Uribe has now "made pretty clear to Chavez and Correa and the rest that their services will not be required," says Adam Isacson, a Latin America expert at the Washington-based Center for International Policy. 

President Uribe will almost certainly take this opportunity to press his advance against the FARC, and although calls for peace have been persistent, Uribe has shown little tolerance for such talk. Memories of former Colombian President Pastrana’s, concessions and his failed attempts at negotiation are still too fresh in the minds of all Colombians.  Most importantly, perhaps there is no now reason to believe that the incredible and relatively swift string of victories in the past several months won’t continue.