5 February, 2008: The impending secession of Kosovo was given new hope after incumbent Boris Tadic’s narrow victory in the Serbian presidential runoff on Sunday. Aiming to tighten ties between Serbia and the European Union, Tadic’s victory represents a reaction to the nationalism and isolationism sought by opponent Tomislav Nikolic.

Tadic, leader of Serbia’s Democratic Party, narrowly defeated opponent Nikolic with 50.5% of the vote against Nikolic’s 47.9%. This came after Nikolic, leader of the Serbian Radical Party, won a plurality of votes in the first round of the election, with 39.4% of votes to Tadic’s 35.4%. Serbian elections mandate a runoff if no candidate earns more than 50% of the vote in the first round.

The closeness of the contest—opinion polls before the vote were well within margins of error—is believed to have incited much of the country’s 6.7 million electors to vote. In fact, voter turnout was the largest since Slobodan Milosevic’s turnover in 2000. In the last presidential election in 2004, with Tadic also narrowly defeating Nikolic in a runoff vote, turnout had only been 42%. Many believed Tadic mostly benefited from the election’s high voter turnout of 68%.

Further driving the stakes was the issue of Kosovar independence and, more broadly, the direction within the international system that Serbia seeks to take. Many saw the vote as a choice between Russian and Western attitudes toward the international order. Tadic, pro-Western, and Nikolic, adamantly pro-Russian, differ widely in their diplomatic amicabilities. While Tadic vows that he will never officially recognize Kosovo independence, his desire to draw closer with the EU signals that he may be willing to compromise. He has said that there is “no alternative” to EU membership to Serbia. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has reiterated these sentiments, with promises to compensate Serbia if it accelerates its integration into the West.

Despite its importance in the election, voter turnout in Kosovo was far less than elsewhere in the country, though still higher than in recent years, at only 56% according to CeSID, who monitored the election. Some experts believe this is a consequence of Kosovar disenchantment with the political process after years of entanglement in a static status process. Additionally, Kosovars face particularly bleak economic realities, further reducing their belief in government. Others also suggest that some in the Kosovo community are still counting on Belgrade to prevent its statehood, lacking the hope that a Tadic victory would help jolt the process forward.

This pessimism is not entirely unmerited. Though Kosovo leaders have claimed that independence would go forward no matter who was claimed the victor, opposition to independence is still entrenched within the Serbian government. Tadic in particular faces a formidable opponent in Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who has close ties to Russia and wishes to blockade any possibility of independence. Kostunica has prepared an “action plan” to impede Kosovo independence, having ordered all government ministries to draw up sabotage plans, concentrating on blocking energy and water supplies from Serbia to Kosovo. Additionally, Kostunica has threatened to sever relations with much of the EU when Brussels deploys a nation-building mission to Kosovo once it claims independence. Serbia’s presidency is primarily a ceremonial post, with the prime ministry being far more powerful, though it has gained in stature and influence since Slobodan Milosevic’s leadership in the 1990s.

Thus, with independence for Kosovo underway, Belgrade’s final reaction to a loss of territory will result from wrangling between the prime minister and newly-elected president—who is not entirely convinced of full Kosovo statehood recognition. Tadic’s efforts to pull closer to the EU, however, do offer some measure of hope for stable relations between Serbia and a Kosovo state. Emphasizing his platform of obtaining EU membership for Serbia in his acceptance speech, Tadic said, “We want to go to Europe. We want to cooperate with the world. We want to say to the people of Kosovo that we’ll never let them down. We need to work together to fulfill Serbia’s potential.”

While Nikolic conceded victory to Tadic on Sunday night, he foreboded an alliance with Kostunica’s anti-independence stance. In his concession speech, he warned, “I will continue to be his tough opposition.” Nikolic supported Slobodan Milosoveic’s genocidal wars in the 1990s and has been a consistent hard-line nationalist in government. Reflecting his isolationist stances, he believes Kosovo’s secession is not a declaration of independence, but merely a pseudo-colonial undertaking by the U.S. and the EU. He has repeatedly said that Serbia should punish the West’s support of an independent Kosovo by turning toward Russia.

Kosovo’s Albanian leaders are not waiting for the Serbian government—they have said they will declare independence days after the Serbian runoff no matter who wins. The U.S. and a majority of EU countries are expected to follow with their quick recognition, though some European diplomats are hoping that Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu will hold off on declaring independence while they negotiate with Tadic for full cooperation. There is some worry that the slim margin of victory by Tadic will force him to appease those who voted against him by downgrading diplomatic ties with nations that recognize Kosovo’s independence.

In spite of Kosovar disillusionment and disputation between pro-Western and pro-Russian camps, the process moves forward. As Kosovo makes preparations for independence, and European Union diplomats work furiously to strengthen ties, the Serbian presidential election marks a profound shift in the future of the Balkans.

Kosovo has been under the aegis of the United Nations since 1999, after NATO intervened to halt Milosevic’s bloody repression of Kosovo’s Albanians, who constitute 90% of the region. With mostly self-run institutions and bureaucracies, the province has struggled toward independence for the last nine years.