29 December, 2007: As far as the negotiation of mutually beneficial agreements is concerned, 2007 proved to be a year of disappointments.

In the United States, the newly-elected Democratic majority proved incapable of passing any meaningful Congressional legislation.

The latest attempt at the creation of a European Constitution, the Treaty of Lisbon, was drafted and signed but the changing political climate in France and anxiety over a referendum in Britain cast doubt as to whether this document will avoid a fate identical to that of its predecessor.

In North Korea, the famed six-party talks looked to have made a breakthrough in February, but as the year progressed the DPRK succeeded in collecting on offered incentives without taking meaningful steps toward shutting down nuclear facilities.

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities failed to soften officially hawkish foreign policy on either side of the Atlantic.

Following a year in which the threat of a full-blown coup forced Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to dissolve a democratically-elected majority-Hamas government, many have lower-than-usual expectations for peace talks in Annapolis.

In Darfur, the humanitarian crisis worsens while negotiations remain non-existent.

A thorough exegesis of each one of these disappointments would make for a grim year-end retrospective. We offer instead a recap of negotiations or incidents that were significant due either to their success, their failure, or the way in which they shed light on how 2008 might unfold.

States of Emergency

During the course of 2007, the Bush administration-approved leaders in Palestine, Georgia, and Pakistan each declared states of emergency in order to combat organized and violent opposition that--to greater or lesser extents--enjoy considerable popular support. The murder of Benazir Bhutto has brought to the fore a question that until now has not received the attention it deserves: ought democratic movements be supported in nations where illiberal and violent factions have political momentum?

Musharaff was universally criticized for his declared state of emergency, and his recent resignation from the army is a step that would not have likely been taken were it not for international pressure. The presence of both nuclear arms and organized terrorist elements within Pakistan make the complete withdrawal of support for Musharaff, along with a ringing endorsement of the democratic process, practical impossibilities. The events of 2007 pushed Pakistan out from behind the shadows cast by Afghanistan and Iraq.

With military options in the U.S. and Europe constrained due to circumstances, diplomatic efforts in Pakistan will have to be stepped up considerably. A far more engaged, nuanced, and adaptive approach to negotiations with Musharaff and his ilk must be adopted in 2008 lest Pakistan and similar countries deteriorate further.

Labor Disputes

A U.S. labor strike among television and movie writers effectively shut down production on any and all scripted visual media. The reason for the strike: currently withheld royalties on content distributed over the internet. Negotiations have gone decidedly nowhere as representatives on both sides of the table struggle to come to grips with the popular adoption of new ways to consume media: over the internet, on hand-held devices, on DVR, etc. In 2008 both creators and distributors will need to find ways to turn the now-ubiquitous new media revolution into a workable business model from which everyone can profit.

France’s President Sarkozy, despite having enough popular support to carry the election, is struggling to make labor reform palatable to the French workforce. After months of rioting little headway has been made at the negotiating table, leading many to wonder whether Sarko’s Thatcher-esque plan for France was ever plausible in the first place. If the Treaty of Lisbon is put to a referendum in France in 2008, the outcome may very well be determined by how the President does or does not make peace with laborers now, many of whom feel newly-drunk off the returning spirit of ’68.

Climate Change

2007 was a mixed bag for climate change activists. On the one hand, the issue received unprecedented attention from legislators and the general population. In November, Chinese finance minister Xie Xuren secured a €500 million loan to combat climate change in China from the European Investment Bank. President Bush signed legislation mandating both reductions in carbon emissions from automobiles and the phasing out of inefficient light bulbs. Al Gore was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

On the other hand, it became apparent that many signatories to the Kyoto Protocol had difficulty meeting its terms, and several newly-booming countries like Russia may be hesitant to participate in any further agreements that would hinder their own industrial growth.

Oil prices continue to soar and consumption is increasing rapidly throughout Asia. The United States may be taking its first halting steps toward energy independence, but in an increasingly multi-polar world this may do little to defuse explosive geopolitics. Russia and China are proving likely to deal with whomever they must in order to acquire the requisite resources to fuel their re-emergence as global powers. If such deals involve oil for weapons--and some trade agreements have already been settled on these terms--the negotiation of climate change may be a strictly-Western phenomenon in 2008.

Multi-polarity

Perhaps more than in any other recent year, 2007 provided us with a glimpse at how the world might look when important agreements are made to which the United States is not a party. Established paradigms of power and influence have shifted to make room for new players.

In the year to come we will hear less and less about the role of the United States as global hegemon and more and more about its need to adapt to and negotiate with newly emboldened parties who have reason to be emboldened. We have already heard much about the rise of China and the re-emergence of Russia--expect to hear more.

We have already heard about the democratization of media--expect to hear more.

We have already heard about the dangers of failed unilateral policy toward dangerous or unstable regimes--expect to hear a lot more.

If we are successfully to prevent the outbreak of more unconscionable violence and chaos, emergent power centers must bring to their new status a sense of responsibility: non-binding resolutions must go the way of the dinosaur. Similarly, the United States must relearn the art of prudent statesmanship. We may finally be witnessing the rebirth of a truly multi-polar world.

Unfinished Business

They are 2007’s most important negotiations; in no particular order, we present the “Big Seven” negotiation processes that demand the world’s attention in 2008.

IRAN. Small-scale UN financial sanctions have notdeterred Iran from continuing its nuclear defiance. President Ahmadinejad claims that Iran can produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale whereas the IAEA says Iran has begun making nuclear fuel in its underground uranium enrichment plant, that ithas started up more than 1,300 centrifuge machines, and that it could develop a nuclear weapon in three to eight years if it so chooses. During June of 2007, angry protests shook Iran after the government introduced petrol rationing in an effort to rein in fuel consumption over fears of possible UN sanctions. Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad announced that Iran now has 3,000 uranium enriching centrifuges fully operating.

KOSOVO.  After several months of negotiations at the UN Security Council aimed at resolving Kosovo’s status, the Contact Group agreed to a new period of intensive engagement with the Serbs and the Kosovars and named a Troika comprised of representatives of the European Union, the Russian Federation, and the United States to facilitate the negotiations. During face-to-face talks both parties have presented their respective proposals on Kosovo’s future status to one another--the Serb negotiating team has described its proposal of autonomy for Kosovo within Serbia and Kosovar Albanians have elaborated their proposal of friendship and cooperation between two independent states and full implementation of minority rights. During a meeting in November, Serbian leaders suggested Hong Kong might serve as a model in negotiations. Kosovar Albanians rejected the proposal which they consider irrelevant to Kosovo’s situation.

NORTH KOREA. North Korea shut down its reactor at Yongbyon in July 2007, and after many rounds of six-party talks in Beijing (involving China, the U.S., Japan, Russia, North and South Korea) it agreed to allow for its nuclear complex to be disabled. South Korea is cautiously optimistic on these new developments. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ South Korean counterpart recently stressed caution and was quoted saying, “the military threat presented by North Korea has not diminished despite its early steps to dismantle its nuclear weapons program…what is certain is that North Korea is continuing to pursue the acquisition of asymmetrical weapons.”

DARFUR. Talks aimed at ending the four-year war in Darfur are stalled while violence continues on the ground. International mediators are traveling to Darfur to consult with the main rebel groups who are boycotting the talks. At the start of the conflict there were two main rebel groups, now the rebel movement has splintered into at least 12 groups and sub-factions. Throughout 2007, envoys from the African Union and the United Nations have been working together to steer the main rebel groups in Darfur towards a common negotiating position. Mediators hosted a meeting in Tanzania where the rebels agreed to some common positions. The next round of talks will be held in Sirte, Libya and the time has yet to be specified.

GAZA. The fragile coalition between Fatah and Hamas--after Hamas won a landslide victory in elections in January 2006--was brief. Mr. Abbas sacked the Hamas Prime Minister, Ismail Haniya, on June 2007 after factional fighting erupted which left more than one hundred people dead in Gaza. Shortly afterwards, Hamas gunmen raided Fatah offices and arrested or executed its fighters, and the Hamas movement declared full control of Gaza. Mr. Abbas issued an emergency decree allowing him to swear in a new cabinet without the approval of parliament where Hamas has an elected majority. The move was backed by the quartet of Middle East peace mediators: The U.S., Russia, the United Nations, and the European Union. The Israeli government expressed its support for Mr. Abbas’ decision and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said it could ameliorate prospects for peace. With the new emergency government excluding Hamas sworn in, the U.S. and EU lifted the 15-month embargo on aid to the Palestinians.

UGANDA. The region of northern Uganda remains tense after singing a treaty in 2006 with the government at the talks in Sudan, to end the Lord Resistance Army’s 20-year war. LRA leader Joseph Kony remains at a rebel camp across the border in the DR Congo. He has not taken part in long-running talks in south Sudan in protest of the ICC arrest war crimes warrants issued against him and other LRA commanders. The LRA’s chief negotiator Martin Ojul said the crucial next step in the peace process was to get the ICC warrants set aside and the cases handled within the country, so that the LRA leaders are given the confidence to go to the capital Kampala for the talks. In recent years, with diminishing support from Sudan, the LRA fighters have been on the run and the rebel movement is still alive.

MYANMAR. On September 2007, there was a government crackdown in Myanmar on peaceful pro-democracy demonstrators. The UN will be mediating negotiations and UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari has been instructed to push talks between pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the Myanmar leadership, so as to seek the release of detained monks, students, and other demonstrators, and to press the government to take necessary democratic measures. The Myanmar junta agreed to let detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to meet with members of her party for the first time in more than three years.