23 November: United Nations -- Pressure on the OSCE’s observer missions to upcoming elections in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is growing following Russia’s decision to curtail the organization’s monitoring activities in advance of December 2 Duma elections.

The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the monitoring arm of the OSCE, has so far been denied timely visas to Russia, although 70 monitors from the OSCE’s parliamentary assembly will observe the December elections. A similar uncooperative scenario is emerging in Uzbekistan where controversy already surrounds every aspect of the December 23 presidential ballot

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which will hold parliamentary elections on December 16, are both part of a Russian-led bloc aiming to reform the work of the ODIHR with proposals to limit the number of monitors to be sent to any election and a gag on commentary before national election committees have released their own assessments.

The proposals are backed by the seven members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. All seven have held elections which were deemed “neither free nor fair” since gaining independence.

Presidential elections in Uzbekistan next month are unlikely to deliver anything but another term in office to the incumbent, Islam Karimov. But they will offer a key test of European foreign policies in one of the most ill-governed corners of the Former Soviet Union.

Karimov, who has held power since 1991, officially registered as a candidate this week despite a constitutional bar on an incumbent seeking a third term in office. Other electoral violations such as failing to announce the date of ballot three months in advance have been noted.

EU-Uzbek relations hit new lows last month following the assassination of independent journalist Alisher Saipov, just weeks after the EU eased travel restrictions against high ranking Uzbek officials suspected of leading the violent crackdown against demonstrators in Andizhan, May of 2005.

Saipov, a 26-year-old Uzbek living is Osh, southern Kyrgyzstan, was shot three times at close range as he left the offices of the opposition Uzbek language paper he edited on October 24. His death marked a bloody beginning to the presidential contest with numerous sources citing Uzbek security forces involvement in his death.

Human rights organizations say Uzbekistan has systematically failed to improve its record. Corruption, brutality and regional rivalries blight Uzbek politics, an annual report by Freedom House warned earlier this year.  Western attempts to censure the Uzbek government’s excesses have been ineffectual and the failing state continues to move “further away from democratic norms than in any other period in its independent history,” it added.

Kyrgyzstan too, although in no way as intransigent as Uzbekistan, has yet to hold blemish free elections. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is mindful of the helpful role the ODIHR’s strongly-worded remarks played in the toppling of his predecessor Askar Akayev and his own accession to the post in the Tulip revolution of 2005.

Russia has long resented what it sees as western interference and sitting presidents and parliaments across the region are increasingly wary of opposition of any sort.

However, the mere election results are riding on the outcome of the current standoff. Russia has clearly signaled its intolerance of ‘international meddling’ in its affairs. This strong-lead will cement Russia’s influence among its politically problematic former republics who seek to free their electoral processes from scrutiny. As a result, the OSCE and the EU may find themselves increasingly marginalized in Central Asia and their standards increasingly flouted or ignored.