12 October 2007: London -- It’s being called the Brown ‘wobble.’ Election fever which has gripped the UK of late has just broken. After fuelling expectations of a snap autumn poll--two years before he needs one--British Prime Minister Gordon Brown just made a major u-turn. He’s been forced to rule out a planned election after unfavorable opinion polls in key marginal seats. In so doing, he’s looked indecisive and his political reputation has been badly damaged.  It’s a gift to Mr. Brown’s Conservative (Tory) opponents--led by youthful moderniser David Cameron--now charging the Labour Party leader with a serious case of election jitters.

Here’s the febrile background. A snap election had been in the political wind ever since Tony Blair handed over to Mr. Brown in June, only two years into his third five-year term. Mr. Brown has enjoyed a bounce in the polls ever since. Yet, Mr. Brown clearly yearns for his own popular mandate. Political analysts first scented election gunpowder last month when Mr. Brown invited none other than Baroness Margaret Thatcher to Downing Street, rightly praising her as a ‘conviction politician.’ Extraordinary given Mr. Brown’s 25-year record as her visceral critic. Mr. Brown’s invitation was not just good manners toward a former premier. He wanted to demonstrate statesmanship by association with greatness. Next, Mr. Brown made a ‘father of the nation’- style speech at his party conference whilst pointedly refusing to rule out a snap poll. Then he pledged--in a clear double-counting exercise--to withdraw 1,000 British troops (20% of the total) from Iraq by Christmas 2007. This was interpreted by the British media as an egregious example of prime ministerial spin. He also brought forward public spending, health and important transport investment decisions as apparent election ‘sweeteners’. The political chess pieces for a snap autumn poll fell into place.

But Mr. Brown’s calculations have been upset, badly, by a striking upturn in recent conservative fortunes. Much of this is down to Mr. Cameron’s recent performance at his Tory party’s own conference in Blackpool. In an audacious ‘bring it on’ speech without autocue, Mr. Cameron revealed powerful new policies on inheritance tax, crime, education, welfare, national security, health, the environment and EU reform. All aimed squarely at the British middle classes in around 100 English marginal seats. In consequence, Cameron is enjoying a ‘bounce’ all of his own.

The latest ICM poll now puts Labour behind by 6% in the key marginals. On this evidence Labour would lose its majority or face a hung parliament. With Mr. Cameron’s revanche Mr. Brown now says he rules out an election before 2009. Until last week his logic for a snap poll, a tactic to secure short-term success, was powerful. Now, Mr. Brown cannot be confident it would deliver. This is why. Brown’s Labour party currently has a 65 seat majority. He wants a secure majority--beyond 100 seats--before any economic downturn bites Britain. Up to now Mr. Brown has traded on his strong record of economic competence. But this reputation may be shattered before 2009 if--as just forecast--the British economy experiences a slowdown to around 2-2.5% growth pa. The signs--prompted by the current global credit crunch--are already emerging. The UK’s recent Northern Rock bank run--the first since 1867--rattled teacups in the Bank of England as a sign of potential trouble ahead. Brown had been hoping voters would compare his proven record--and his puritan steeliness--with what he claimed is the untried Mr. Cameron.

But conservative fortunes in the UK have now been totally transformed.
Mr. Cameron’s star now appears in the ascendant. Since 2005 he has done much to modernise his party in the teeth of criticism. Yet he clearly still has a huge mountain to climb if he is to snatch the keys to Downing Street from
Mr. Brown’s fingers. The Conservatives must maintain their current policy momentum to appeal in the English marginals. The stakes could not be higher. If the Tories lose again--they have languished in opposition since 1997--they’ll be consigned to the political wilderness until 2014. Whilst it’s a tough call for Cameron, Mr. Brown nevertheless faces his own dilemma. Whenever he does decide to call it, the prize is an unprecedented fourth term for his party. But if he loses before 2009 or 2010, he’ll rank among the shortest serving British prime ministers ever. Much to play for indeed. Brown knows that Britain’s 43 million voters can be highly mercurial toward overconfident governments. In 1979 another Labour premier, James Callaghan, gambled against calling a snap poll. He was cast from office by the huge Thatcher landslide later that year. Meanwhile, Mr. Brown remains highly unpopular for ‘stealth taxes’, particularly on UK pension funds.

Mr. Brown has now been seen to dither. He has failed to seize the moment and his reputation has suffered accordingly. One thing is clear. Even if the smart money is still on Mr. Brown winning the next election whenever it comes, Mr. Cameron will be leading a fight back unprecedented in the history of the Tory Party. Like their Republican party soul mates--with 2008 looming-- British conservatives have everything to play for.

Ronan Thomas is a London-based correspondent