By Nathaniel Foote, Latin America Contributor
In the wake of a U.S.-Colombian military deal, Hugo Chavez has raised the stakes with a large arms deal and the announcement of a nuclear program.
At the 5th Summit of the Americas this spring, Barack Obama and Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, were photographed holding hands and smiling broadly. Obama spoke of "engaging in a new relationship" and forging “partnerships and joint approaches to work on common challenges" in the hemisphere. Observers touted the Summit, and its rare moment of comity between an American President and Venezuela’s Head of State, as the dawning of a new day for the United States’ relationship with Latin America.
Less than half a year on, however, relations between the United States and its southern neighbor have deteriorated rapidly. The announcement last month of a U.S.-Colombian deal to increase the American military presence in the country has inspired region-wide indignation. Chavez has used the deal as justification for a widely publicized $2.2 billion arms deal with Russia, and despite the United States’ assurances that its agreement with Colombia will serve only to aid that country in combating drug trafficking and internal conflict, Chavez remains unconvinced; “We have the largest petroleum reserves in the world. The [United States] has its sights on them, and that although Venezuela has no plans to invade anybody, nor attack anybody. These arms are necessary for our national defense.”
The United States is rightly worried. Outright armed conflict between Colombia and Venezuela is unlikely, but a flow of arms into the region—especially in the hands of its leftists—may be used to bolster a weakened FARC or a re-emergent Shining Path in Peru. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, expressed additional concerns at a press conference last Thursday, stating, "[Venezuela] outpaces all other countries in South America [in the arms trade] and certainly raise[s] the question as to whether there is going to be an arms race in the region." Additionally, as Venezuela pursues increasingly close economic ties with countries like China, Iran, and Russia Chavez may be more willing to challenge Colombia and the United States directly.
So far, the conflict between South America’s left, Colombia, and the U.S. has been limited to inflammatory rhetoric, but an influx of weapons could raise tensions to the breaking point. Venezuela’s recent announcement of its proposed nuclear program, in cooperation with Russia, complicates things further. Over the last four years, Venezuela and Russia have traded roughly $4 billion in arms, and if nothing else, the present deal is indicative of their growing partnership.
Chavez responded to American concerns with a state television address in which he assured viewers that his country’s nuclear ambitions were peaceful, adding “Don’t bother us like with Iran.” It remains to be seen if President Obama’s appeal to Russia by halting the deployment of missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic, are harbingers of wider cooperation and a general lowering of longstanding Russo-U.S. animosities. Whatever the outcome, in a region long dependent on American patronage, Chavez has propelled Venezuela from merely a regional actor, to a global geo-political contender.
At the same time, Caracas maintains the world’s highest murder rate, Venezuela is threatened by lagging oil revenues, and Chavez’s own popularity lags. Despite this, however, the leader remains as bold, paranoid, and powerful as ever.
