What is Causing Uncertainty in Oil Markets?
23 June 2008: As has been noted before in this space, oil markets are suffering from a great deal of uncertainty. Producers and consumers all disagree on the impetuses for the doubling on oil prices over the past year—to $135 a barrel at the close of last week. Click to read more

Understanding the Profits of Oil Producers
17 June 2008: Understanding the position of oil companies reveals a lot about the different issues that are in play as oil prices have risen over the past months. This exercise also provides insight into the thought process of oil-producing states. Click to read more

The Bright Side of Oil
9 June 2008: Have a look at a newspaper these days and it is impossible to avoid the sturm und drang over oil prices. (Indeed, even this space has seen such pieces.) Prices touch new highs at an almost weekly rate; concerns over inflation are growing in many countries; and unrest is touching off around the world in response to the climbing energy costs. The overall picture is pretty bleak. Click to read more

Why are we paying higher prices at the pump?
2 June 2008: Remember all the alarming talk about oil going for $100 a barrel? Well, that doesn’t sound so bad any more, does it? By the end of May, the combination of supply constraints, increased demand from emerging markets, and the weakening dollar pushed oil to highs of $135 a barrel.
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Aid and Sanctions?
14 May, 2008: With the situation in the Irrawaddy delta getting more desperate every day, the pressure on the Burmese—or as is officially known, Myanmar—government to let international aid agencies into the country to assist with the devastation wrought by CycloneNargis is growing.
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Russia’s New President
12 May 2008: Less than a week into a new presidency is hardly the time to pass judgment or predict outcomes. Still, it does offer the opportunity to outline some of the challenges and opportunities that face the newly minted supreme at the Kremlin, Dmitry Medvedev. Click to read more

The Global Food Crisis
5 May 2008: From milk to rice, food prices are rising around the world. The world’s poor, from Senegal to San Francisco, have been going with less and less to eat as food prices have climbed 83% in the last three years.
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Negotiations and Carter’s Middle East Trip
14 April 2008: Former President Jimmy Carter will be traveling in the Middle East and is expected to meet with leaders of Hamas this week—a move that has elicited strong reactions from parties in the U.S. Click to read more

Arab Summit 2008: Arab States Snub Syria and Resolve Nothing
8 April 2008: The end of March saw another annual summit of the Arab League, which concluded with a failure to resolve any of the serious issues on the agenda, but was successful in making clear the already visible political divisions in the Middle East.  Click to read more

Russia-U.S. Relations
7 April 2008: Following the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Bucharest, Romania, President George W. Bush spent the weekend in Sochi, Russia, at the summer house of Russia’s outgoing president, Vladimir Putin. This meeting is one of the last tête-à-têtes between the two leaders.
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Taiwan and Tibet have similar causes but choose different directions
2 April 2008: Last week was eventful in Chinese “domestic affairs.” The handful of journalists who were finally allowed into Lhasa last Wednesday reported that “the anti-Chinese riot which convulsed Tibet’s ancient capital was far more aggressive, long-running, and inflicted far more damage than any outsiders had previously realized.” Click to read more

Basra Offensive
31 March 2008: Last month, I outlined some of the inner workings of the “surge” in Iraq, highlighting the diplomatic goings-on that have accompanied the increase in U.S. troop numbers, which in turn have led to a reduction in violence in recent months. These developments include alliances with Sunni militias—the Awakening—and a ceasefire by the leading Shia militia, the Mehdi Army. Click to read more

Un-Ordained Diplomats
27 March, 2008: A theme, which constantly seems to reemerge—yet never resolve itself—is that of celebrities and national icons making political declarations about a party or an issue or coming down on one side of a heated debate. Click to read more

New 'Star Wars'
25 March 2008: Twenty-five years ago, then-President Ronald Reagan sat in the Oval Office and addressed the citizens of the United States, proffering an audacious plan: “[t]hat we embark on a program to counter the awesome Soviet missile threat with measures that are defensive. Let us turn to the very strengths in technology that spawned our great industrial base and that have given us the quality of life we enjoy today.” Click to read more

The Dollar and Economic Woes
17 March 2008: Over the past few months, the U.S. dollar has seen a sharp fall in its value against other major world currencies. Every week there seems to be headlines about the new depths that the greenback is plumbing. Last week saw the dollar depreciate against the Japanese yen, dropping below the ¥100 mark for the first time in twelve years. Click to read more

Kosovo's Dueling Narratives
14 March, 2008:  For those who haven’t been following closely the situation in the Balkans for the last decade, Kosovo’s declaration of independence on February 17th and the subsequent riots in the Serbian capital of Belgrade may have seemed like a sudden or spontaneous occurrence. For many individuals without a vested interest in the region, Kosovo’s saga may have seemed to come to an end with the Kosovo War in the late 1990’s.
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The 'Fine Art' of Diplomacy
13 March, 2008: Last October I wrote a piece detailing the impact that a South African play was having in its attempts to heal post-conflict areas around the globe. While this project was lauded for its unique and innovative approach to unifying conflict-torn regions around the world, more often than not the intersection of Fine Art and international politics and diplomacy is vastly overlooked. Click to read more

Elections and Foreign Interference
10 March 2008: Foreign interference in elections is hardly a new phenomenon. It was a staple of imperialism and was also used by the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the cold war. It was forthright, obvious, and unapologetic with foreign governments installing and propping up foreign heads of states. In the age of globalization—that old chestnut—it seems to be occurring again, but in a different manner. Click to read more

Colombia's Diplomatic Crisis
5 March 2008: In his desperation to show results for his “Democratic Security” policy, which aims at eliminating the guerrillas of the FARC, Colombian president Alvaro Uribe attacked and killed a guerrilla leader Raul Reyes in Ecuadorian territory, violating the sovereignty of its neighbor.
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Russian Elections
Putin's chosen Medvedev wins by 70 percent of the vote
3 March 2008: So it’s official; yesterday saw Dmitry Medvedev, current President Vladimir Putin’s preferred successor, chosen by nearly 70% of the Russian electorate to lead the country.
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Fidel Castro gives up his seat, but is he giving up his power?
25 February 2008: Cuban leader Fidel Castro did not die while in office. After a year and a half ill, he announced his official resignation last week anointing his brother, Raul Castro as his successor. But this is not the last we see or hear of Fidel Castro; he may have given up his seat but not his power.
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Iraq Beyond the Headlines
Uncovering the individuals and groups at the heart of the insurgency
21 February, 2008: It seems that not a day goes by without hearing a report on a cable news program or reading a story in a newspaper which references a tragedy in Iraq and identifies its source “insurgents.” While the notion of the insurgency in Iraq is becoming more and more ubiquitous in the international media, its actual nature and the individuals which comprise it continue to be abstract concepts to most people.
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The World Reacts to Kosovo's Declaration of Independence
20 February 2008: Kosovo’s long-anticipated declaration of independence from Serbia finally arrived this week amid much fanfare. President George W. Bush proclaimed to the world’s newest nation, “the United States will be your partner and your friend.” Russia, on the other hand, was less pleased by these developments and declared the move “unacceptable.” Serbia promptly recalled its ambassadors from Washington, France and Turkey.
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Iran and Nuclear Developments
13 February 2008: The process of isolating Iran, both economically and politically, in an attempt to stop Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear power—which it claims are for peaceful purposes—has been an arduous and, thus far, unsuccessful one. For every step forward, there have been corresponding, and seemingly inevitable, reverses.
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Nabucco Pipeline and Iran
In a week where violence continued to escalate in Kenya and world markets remained wary about the strength of the U.S. economy, Iran looked to score some points, both economically and diplomatically, by taking advantage of developments in the European energy market.
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Russia and Europe’s Gas Market
Last week, Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, agreed to build a 550-mile pipeline, dubbed South Stream, running under the Black Sea into Bulgaria. The new pipeline, which will cost $14.7 billion to construct, will supply Europe with upwards of 1.15 trillion cubic feet of natural gas a year, and will further cement Russia’s dominant position in Europe’s energy market. Moscow currently supplies 40% of the European Union’s gas.
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Bush's Visit to the Middle East
Much of the coverage of U.S. President George W. Bush’s jaunt to the Middle East has focused on two themes: pushing forward the Israel-Palestine peace process and further isolating Iran. Yet there are also economic issues on the agenda, not the least because of the worsening economic situation in the U.S.
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‘Add Women and Stir’
South Africa: Women’s Movement & the Upcoming Presidential Election
Looking in on South Africa during the run-up to the 2008 presidential race the data regarding gender equality within South African society seems strikingly contradictory. On one hand, due to policies such as the quota system enacted by the African National Congress (ANC) following democratic transition, South Africa has one of the highest percentages of female parliamentarians in world--easily ahead of many more developed countries.
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Three Rules of Petropolitics
In the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Policy, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman coined the term the “First Law of Petropolitics” and posited that “the price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states.” This law has become perceived wisdom and there is certainly evidence to support the stipulation.
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Pakistan: Of Ballots and Bullets
In a piece written about Pakistan and the American presidential candidates, David Remnick has reprinted a description of Benazir Bhutto taken from a profile published in October of 1993, when she began her second term as Prime Minister. “[Bhutto] is an Eastern fatalist by birth, a Western liberal by conviction, and a people-power revolutionary… She is an expensively educated product of the West who has ruled a male-dominated Islamic society of the East.”
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Friends with Benefits: Iran’s deals with China and Russia
Since the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s “Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” was made public earlier this month, everyone from former National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger to my mother has voiced their opinion on the matter: Is the intelligence community making amends for previous, more hawkish NIEs?
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South Africa's Presidential Race:
A Time of Presidential Tomfoolery
While the world's attention is focused on the American presidential race and all the underhanded politicking that goes with that, another country is also in the process of finding a president. As you read this, South Africa is in the process of deciding whom its next president will be.
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Putin Anoints His Successor
Monday saw Russian President Vladimir Putin anoint his first deputy prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, as his chosen successor. Whomever he supported is widely expected to win next year’s election and even leading competitors seem resigned to the inevitability. The decision is fodder for Kremlin tea-leaf readers who will be scrambling to discern what this move will mean for the Bear.
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Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Deciphering the New NIE
The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has put the White House in an uncomfortable position, contradicting previous intelligence assumptions made in 2005 and much of the pointed U.S. political rhetoric since 2003. 
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Dollar Decisions: A Shift in the Offing?
For weeks, the U.S. dollar's slide has been making headlines: The Economist's cover story was certainly attention grabbing: “The Panic About the Dollar” with George Washington going down in flames (even if its content was more measured); the Financial Times asked“How Low Can the Dollar Go?”; and theeditors over at the Economic Times of India wondered if anyone could slow the slide.
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China and the EU: Ties That Bind
With all eyes focused on the Bush Administration’s efforts to bring peace to the Middle East, it would be easy to miss the other major negotiations happening elsewhere—in the Middle Kingdom.
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Iran: Lack of Negotiations
I went to a conference on U.S. foreign policy last week and in the course of the discussion—as you might expect—the current crisis over Iran’s nuclear ambitions came up. A leading British academic on U.S. policy expressed his chagrin at the lack of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran.
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North Korea: Diplomacy Holding Steady
North Korea’s decision in early October to dismantle its plutonium facility at Yongbyon and disclose its other nuclear activities was a major achievement for the Bush Administration. This week saw the first rewards from that deal with start of the disablement process at the Yongbyon site.
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Osirak Revisited: Israel Preempts Syrian Nuclear Program
On September 6, 2007 a squadron of Israeli jets struck a target deep in Syrian territory approximately 145km from the Iraqi border. What followed was a complete information blackout on the part of all governments involved which proved revealing as to the actual importance of the operation. Israel and the U.S. made no initial comment.
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New Sanctions for Iran, But Are They Working?
The big discussion of late has been the U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to place sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and three of Iran’s major banks in response to Tehran’s persistent nuclear efforts. The Bush Administration had, for a third time, attempted to go through the United Nations, but this time that road was blocked by China and Russia.
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Exchange Rates Not Changing Fast Enough
The word from Washington has been consistent for some time: China’s currency, the yuan, is undervalued relative to the dollar, resulting in an unfair trade advantage for the Middle Kingdom. This stipulation has come to be the central play in relations between Beijing and the Bush Administration as both sides look to contend with an uncertain global economy—highlighted by the subprime crisis in the U.S. and China’s galloping stock markets and ballooning surplus.
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Reviving the Middle East Peace Process
Condoleezza Rice’s recent Middle East tour has come to an end, leaving more doubt than confidence that a U.S. proposed conference will revive the long stalled peace process. Her most recent pronouncement, that there is a “reasonable chance of success,” does not appear overly optimistic, especially given already present arguments over a document meant to serve as the basis for negotiations.
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The Politics of Genocide
Important lessons leave the current discrepancy between the Turkish government and the House Foreign Relations Committee of the United States, when the latter one voted to call the killings, by the Ottoman Empire, of more than 1.5 million Armenians genocide.
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Washington DC Gets Some South African "Truth"
The latest production to open at Washington DC’s Atlas Performing Arts Center prefers to be called a “project” rather than a play. This is because
this particular group of actors and singers has a goal that goes beyond mere entertainment: each individual involved in South Africa’s Truth in Translation project is looking to heal some of the most conflict-torn areas of the world one performance at a time.
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Kim Jong Il Decides to Play Nice, But Will it Last?
Kim Jong Il, the isolated North Korean dictator shocked the world last week when he emerged signing agreements and complying to eliminate his nuclear stockpile once and for all.
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Human Exchange in Colombia and Chavez is in the Middle of It
When people are desperate they rely on others. But often, these “saviors” are not the best solution; if they were the ones that can resolve the problem, people would have relied on them on earlier stages. 
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Putin the Puppet Master
Putin the President, Putin the Prime Minister, Putin the Parliamentarian.
Let’s state the obvious whilst enjoying another satisfyingly alliterative phrase:  Putin the puppet master.
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“Just Do It” South Africans Say at their Annual GovTech Conference
The South African State Information Technology Agency (SITA) held its
annual GovTech conference in August 2007 focusing on the application
of technology in transforming the country’s ability to deliver services to
its citizens.
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Russia Closes Down MP3 Site, Two More Open Up
In an effort to curry favor in its bid to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO), Russian authorities have moved to shutdown the music downloading site Allofmp3.com.
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Ich Bin Ein Berliner!
When it comes to matters of climate change, I have to agree with JFK's famous words from the 60s. “Yes, friends, I too am a donut.”
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India- U.S. Civil Nuclear Deal: A Resounding Success, Not a Failure
I do not have the knowledge or interest to judge the Bush Administration’s performance on all foreign policy matters, but I definitely think the administration’s recognition of India as a nuclear power is not an “embarrassing diplomatic failure”, but merely a long due acknowledgement
of a reality.
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Blackmail from the Past
As the world looks closer to Northern Ireland to make a final political
power-sharing settlement in order to end a bloody century old conflict, and as we watch closely Kosovo and Cyprus make their own bids to a political settlement to end their political deadlock, we can't help but notice a trend when asking: why is it that some negotiations are doomed to fail and others pre-disposed to succeed? Is it timing? Is it the stakes?
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Politics With a Punchline
The U.S. made a mistake in openly working to block Venezuela’s effort to
be on the UN Security Council in 2006.
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Growing Axis: Did the U.S. Trade One for Another?
"States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic."
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