19 December, 2007: London, UK -- Since the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s “Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” was made public earlier this month, everyone from former National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger to my mother has voiced their opinion on the matter: Is the intelligence community making amends for previous, more hawkish NIEs? Is the Bush Administration using this report as a release valve to defuse tensions between Washington and Tehran? Did Vice-President Dick Cheney try to stop the assessment from being published because it would hurt the case for war against Iran?

Putting these discussions aside, what has been the effect of these revelations on the campaign for tougher sanctions against Tehran? Since the news that the U.S. intelligence community believes “with high confidence” that Tehran “halted its nuclear weapons program” in 2003, everyone has commented on how much more difficult passing a third round of sanctions will be. These predictions were vindicated with two major victories for Iran. Firstly, the Persian nation agreed to a $2 billion contract with China’s Sinopec to develop the Yadavaran field and buy natural gas. Only four days later came the revelation that Russia will supply Iran with nuclear fuel for its Bushehr facility. There will likely be more deals on the way with Iranian officials seizing on the opportunity to pull in some much needed foreign investment. With these events in mind, the future is not bright for stronger sanctions.

The main issue here is oil. China needs to fuel its economy and Russia needs Iran on its side over disputed oil and natural gas fields in the Caspian. These countries are unwilling to compromise their strategic interests for what is not an imminent threat. Yet to be effective, sanctions will have to target Iran’s energy industry--something not likely to happen following the NIE.

These revelations have also been surmised as a blow to a Bush Administration’s belligerent Iranian policy (which it is in terms of the sanctions efforts). What garners less ink is the fact that many in European nations were leading supporters of the initiative. Too often, the Iran issue is painted as a bilateral struggle, when leaders in London and Paris are active players as well. Even the esteemed Iranian experts Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh believe that it is “Washington’s goal is to eliminate Iran’s influence in the Arab world” and it is “Washington’s containment strategy.”

Do not forget though that it was France’s Foreign Affairs Minister Bernard Kouchner who has made the most oblique threat to date against Tehran. Indeed, French President Nicholas Sarkozy won glowing reviews in part because of his statements against Iran. Across the Canal, as Gideon Rachman blogs over at the FT, “the Brits are very worried that efforts to push through a new sanctions package against Iran will now be much harder. And they still think further sanctions are justified.” My own talks with British officials indicate continued support for sanctions. That is why so many European officials are bewildered more by the timing of the release, rather than with the NIE’s findings themselves. One unnamed EU official declared: “Our efforts to build up momentum for another [sanctions] resolution are gone.” (And don’t forget that there are some countries in the Middle East who are very uneasy about the prospects of the nuclear-armed Tehran as well.)

It is important to remember that the campaign against Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons does not simply emanate from Washington and a cabal of neocons--in fact, many of the people responsible for the Iraq war have either left the Administration or no longer hold as much sway as they once did--despite it being widely portrayed as such. As the NIE states: “the [nuclear] program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure [which] suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue. [Emphasis added]” It is international pressure that (“probably”) caused the shift in Tehran, but it is only with international, multilateral support that the Bush Administration and the allies can achieve their goal.

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