12 May 2008: Less than a week into a new presidency is hardly the time to pass judgment or predict outcomes. Still, it does offer the opportunity to outline some of the challenges and opportunities that face the newly minted supreme at the Kremlin, Dmitry Medvedev.

As I have written in this space before, Medvedev was all but hand picked for the Russian presidency by his predecessor, Vladimir Putin. They have a long history and Putin believes that his man can be trusted to continue his legacy of re-establishing the power of the Bear. Indeed, Medvedev went so far as to declare, “I think [my presidency] will be a direct continuation [of Putin].” Such statements are hardly surprising given the fact that Putin’s popularity in Russia was one of the major reasons for Medvedev’s victory—though some good ol’ fashioned election rigging certainly played its part in the size of the victory.

But, what exactly does he mean by “direct continuation”? Though Western media coverage of Russia has highlighted the repressive and authoritarian nature of Putin’s later years, it is important to remember what the country was like before he came to power: the economy was in shambles, governmental and ministerial bodies were ineffective, and crime was rampant. While there are many things to criticize about Putin’s tenure—and indeed many of these problems persist to this day—there is now a base from which authority can be projected. If this authority was used to political and self-interest ends under Putin, the establishment of such an entity out of chaos of the 1990s looks to be a positive development in my eyes. (I think that it bears repeating that though there has been some slight-of-hand and he will retain a great deal of power under the new arrangement, Putin ultimately obeyed the Russian constitution, which forbids a third successive term: another example of the convalescing of institutional power.)

Now with a new leader at the helm, and one who is thought to hold the West’s liberal values in higher esteem, there is a chance that this authority can be used to more judicious and dispassionate ends. “Russia is a country of legal nihilism at a level,” Medvedev proclaimed in one of his few campaign appearances, “that no European country can boast of.” He continued: “Corruption in the official structures has a huge scale and the fight against it should become a national program.” Where Putin looked to reign in the oligarchs who took advantage of the chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, his successor seems to want a more institutionalized, less ad hoc system.

For him to be successful though, Medvedev will need powerful friends who can protect him from numerous factions that exist within the Kremlin. This could be the envisioned role for Putin, who now holds the prime ministership and leadership of Russia’s largest political party. “I'm convinced our work together in an effective joint effort can bring about good results… and become a very positive force in our country's development," Medvedev said.

Medvedev has played a central role in Russia’s foreign policy, sitting at the helm of Gazprom, the country’s natural gas monopoly. From this perch, he has helped to thwart Europe’s efforts to establish energy independence from Moscow. He also played a role in the expulsion of foreign energy companies from Russia, which Gazprom greatly benefited from. Whether these acts were Putin’s doing or Medvedev’s is difficult to determine, but whatever the case, the trend is likely to continue.

Moscow is now in the ascendancy. Under Putin, Russia once looked to the West in the hopes of gaining favor. But when little was forthcoming, a new tack was taken, one that was increasingly anti-western and increasingly assertive. These tendencies were strengthened as energy prices have soared into the triple-digits, filling the Kremlin’s coffers.

This emboldened Russia no longer negotiates from a position of weakness on the international stage; a point driven home by the military parade marking Medvedev’s inauguration. Fighter planes are flying their old cold war routes; the country is again a force in the espionage world with increased cyber attacks; and it is flexing its muscle in its former sphere of influence. Relations between Russia and the West continued apace this past week with expulsion of Western diplomats.

Given all this, it sounds grating when Medvedev says that Russia will “continue developing as a nation open for dialogue and cooperation with the international community” [my emphasis].

In the end, a powerful Russia—a “great” Russia—both internationally and domestically, looks to be a vision that is shared by both Putin and Medvedev. The difference will likely be in style and how that power is maintained. The question now stands: How will the West react to the new leadership?

So readers, what do you think? Is this a chance for Russo-Western relations to improve? Or is it more of the same—or worse?

Send us your thoughts at editors@diplomaticourier.org.

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Comments

The Russo-Western Relations' X-Factor
Jesse, New Jersey, U.S.
Monday, May 12, 2008 - 9:51 a.m. EST

The Open Borders’ blog entry “Russia’s New President” suggests the interesting possibility that Dmitry Medvedev’s ascension in the Kremlin holds the possibility of improved relations between the West and Moscow. Especially considering that, with the exception of strategic missile defense initiatives by Washington, the Putin relationship with Western interests has been generally positive and Medvedev’s reign is considered a continuation of the Putin philosophy.

However, all should consider the important x-factor in Russo-Western relations, Iran. In the last year alone it has been seen that the Kremlin continues to be consistently inconsistent in its handling of Tehran.

For example: a year ago, versus half-year ago, versus a couple months ago.

So with ever persistent tension between Western powers and Iran present, the question of Russo-Western relations boils down simply to how the Medvedev-Putin co-presidency will set Kremlin policy with regards to Tehran.