25 February 2008: Cuban leader Fidel Castro did not die while in office. After a year and a half ill, he announced his official resignation last week anointing his brother, Raul Castro as his successor. But this is not the last we see or hear of Fidel Castro; he may have given up his seat but not his power.

Cuba is one of the last few countries still organized politically and economically communist. Even though, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Fidel Castro tried a few free-market oriented policies, the economy was always centralized by the state.

What is expected of Cuba after almost 50 years of communism? Leaders around the world are asking for a peaceful transition towards democracy and free market economics. Is this realistic with Fidel Castro and his old guard still in the shadows? Even with his resignation, Fidel Castro will continue to control—to some degree—behind the scenes.

So what then, of Fidel Castro’s resignation?

The most possible scenario is that life for Cubans will continue in the same way. With Fidel Castro alive nobody in the government or civil society will dare to ask or push for real reforms. Cubans are aware that dissent will still be punished with jail or death. The economy will continue to be state-controlled and the repressive political regime will continue with Raul at the forefront and Fidel in the background.

But when Fidel dies, his brother Raul and the other “comrades” of the Cuban Communist Party will not have the muscle to exercise the kind of repressive and absolute power that Fidel Castro has exercised all these years. Only then, will there be time for real change in Cuba.

People inside and outside the island will ask for reforms and the Cuban government will have to answer for how that will be done. Overnight, as they were done in many of the Eastern European countries?  Or follow China’s example, become a more open economy with a communist regime still reigning?  The most realistic option would be the slow transition towards democracy and the free market. The West and the U.S. could help with the latter.

Cubans inside and outside the island are getting ready for the day when they can demand real changes for Cuba. They will not want those changes in a slow pace. The international community should be ready when this happens as it will not be an easy or smooth transition. Fidel Castro’s resignation has created a scenario in which the final battle for real change in Cuba will be staged.

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