20 February 2008: Kosovo’s long-anticipated declaration of independence from Serbia finally arrived this week amid much fanfare.

President George W. Bush proclaimed to the world’s newest nation, “the United States will be your partner and your friend.” Russia, on the other hand, was less pleased by these developments and declared the move “unacceptable.” Serbia promptly recalled its ambassadors from Washington, France and Turkey.

While London, Paris, and Rome were quick to recognize Kosovo ’s independence, others in Europe are concerned about the precedent that could be set. Asia is similarly worried. The great concern is that Kosovo’s newly found sovereignty will spark a string of similar breakaways by disgruntled peoples in Canada, Spain, Georgia, etc.

European and U.S. officials assert that the Kosovo situation is unique and should not be replicated. Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times’ international affairs columnist, agrees:

"For me, the Kosovo declaration is reminiscent of East Timor’s declaration of independence from Indonesia. In both cases, the new countries were so small and economically fragile that statehood seemed--on logical grounds--distinctly ill-advised. But--in both cases--their entanglement with the country that they were breaking free from was so full of blood and bitterness, that independence eventually looked like the only feasible option."

Here, Rachman touches on an important issue: Kosovo’s economic fragility. Unemployment in the nascent state stands at around 40%. The country is landlocked and according to the World Bank, around 45% of the population lives in poverty--and 15% in extreme poverty. Furthermore, foreign aid in the amount of nearly $1 billion accounted for 29% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2006, according to the UN mission in Kosovo. This picture is pretty bleak and any road to stability and prosperity will be a long and arduous one.

As alluded to by Rachman, economic hardship and violence have been inextricably linked in Kosovo. While he talks about violence in the past tense, economic problems can easily lead to tension and conflict. East Timor is indeed a good example. According to a 2004 World Bank report, “unemployment in [East Timor’s capital] Dili was estimated at 23% and youth unemployment at 40%, rising to 58% for the 15-19 age group.” The World Bank goes on to note: “With half the population under 18, urban youth unemployment and its associated problems will increase unless vigorous growth in the non-oil sectors can be created.” [Emphasis added] These “associated problems” (read: unrest) lead to the displacement of 150,000 people from Dili in 2006, and just last week the country’s president, Jose Ramos-Horta, was shot in his own home by rebel soldiers.

The implication is clear. To be a successful state, Kosovo (and all states, for that matter) must be economically viable. All the talk about freedom is well and good, but what steps will states take to ensure that Kosovo can survive, and eventually thrive? This question is an especially tricky one for the European Union, which is by far Pristina’s largest aid donor. There is also the seeming paradox of Serbia, which according to its president, Boris Tadic, will continue to pursue EU membership, while opposing Kosovo’s independence.

On this divisive issue, what policies can diplomats and politicians put in place to ensure peace and prosperity in the Balkans--not just between nations, but within nations? What must Kosovo do to help itself? And finally, how will this issue be used by the likes of Russia, which is looking to reassert its authority in its former Soviet sphere?

Send us your thoughts at editors@diplomaticourier.org.